We’ve been saying that our metrics of Experience Equity are leading indicators of future sales volume for quite some time. Now we are growing bolder in our approach. Starting today, we are going to begin offering routine predictions of the weekly shift in sales trends. We’ll start with the Tablet market, notable due to the recent launch of the new iPad. Below you will see a table with our predictions for tablet sales, by model over the next week. You might say this is cheating, expecting that all non “iPad 3” tablet sales will fall this next week as the world holds its breath to see whether the new iPad is all that.
As you can see from the buzz landscape below, we did see the market take a breath when the Apple event was announced. The only tablet that seemed immune from the iPad 3 buzz was the Nook Tablet. Based on the initial shift in buzz levels, it would seem the Kindle Fire might take a larger hit in sales volume when the new iPad finally makes it way into the hands of some consumers this Friday.
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Based on this data, we have started pulling together weekly forecasts based on how we see consumer adoption shifting the mindshare and eventually marketshare of these products. The details are secret of course but overtime we’ll be checking our math against available historical sales data. Please let us know if this matches your expectations for what’s happening in the market place. Imagine receiving a refined forecast that reacts to shifts in customer adoption rather than relying on vendor supplied guesses!
Within weeks of the availability of new iPad, Argus Insights will publish an analysis of the launch, comparing the anticipation with reality, and highlighting what aspects of the new iPad pose the greatest competitive threat to other tablets. Let us know if you’d like to receive information about this upcoming report. I’ll be posting the outline in a later post.