September 2013

Is Apple Losing Its “Rockstar” Status?

Apple just had its biggest release of the year and no one seems to care. At Argus Insights we track markets , product launches, and companies to quantify how consumers feel about their products and brands. Over the past decade, Apple has been the darling of the public’s eye, but now seems to hardly be noticed after their biggest product release of the year. The evidence is in the data – demand for the new iPhone is MUCH lower than anticipated.

Analysis of consumer adoption metrics for the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c may indicate a terrible launch for Apple in the US.

Experience tells us that this market response to Apple’s launch is a dramatic disappointment for Apple. Although Apple claims they sold 9 million handsets within the first three days to “hungry markets,” our analysis indicates this “hunger” is outside the United States since the domestic demand is lagging. For the American market, such little chatter about Apple may be caused by the fact that the iPhone 5c is being mostly purchased by and for younger consumers, who do not show up as much in social media.

The iPhone 5c receives much less buzz than the iPhone 5s. Given that social media use tends to skew towards younger consumers, this means the 5c is failing to capture the attention of the intended market.

The social media data confirms that the iPhone 5s clearly has outperformed the iPhone 5c. By mapping comments to geolocations, Argus is able to decipher chatter coming from real people and separate it from chatter generated by corporate marketing sources. This reiterates the fact that actual humans are mostly silent on the topic of the Apple iPhone 5C.

When looking at the social mentions of actual human beings, we see the iPhone 5c fade almost completely from conversation.

So what does this mean? This could mean that the iPhone 5c may be one of the world’s worst smartphone launches this year. This assertion is supported by evidence from Localytics, which reported the Apple 5s outsold the Apple 5c by 3 to 1. If this is the case, the implications are significant because a company that has occupied the hearts and minds of consumers over the past years is now starting to fade. Apple has failed to catch the attention of consumers with its latest phone, which means people are looking to other companies for innovation and alternatives. This may be the dawn of a new era in which Apple products and innovations no longer dominate consumer attention, but instead the competition will take the lead as the new “apple of our eyes.”

Buzz for BBM exceeds discussion of BlackBerry Fairfax deal.

BlackBerry Consumers More Excited About BBM Than Fairfax

BlackBerry has finally been taken off the market, almost… Question is, does the consumer market care? What does it bode for BlackBerry to be taken private. Our analysis of social buzz surrounding recent events show that although the Fairfax offer is incredible important, the recent launch of BBM on iOS and Android products is still driving the most buzz for Blackberry faithful.

We believe this shows the market is hopeful for the deal and what it means for the BlackBerry faithful regarding the future of their favorite handset manufacturer. The rapid adoption of BBM across the mobile ecosystem also signals the extension of the BlackBerry experience by growing roots under the walled gardens of Apple and Google. In the wake of Dell’s recent privatization, these trend signals willingness by members of the private equity community to place bets on opportunities that the market refuses to see.

buzz and delight landscape of recently launched Nokia phones.

What did Microsoft just buy? Niche Nokia handsets and a War Chest of IP

Our friends in Finland are moving to Redmond. What will be key is what baggage Nokia is bringing over in the shipping containers. Beyond the obvious war chest of intellectual property, patents, insanely good supply chain management, Nokia is also bringing the highest performing Windows handsets with them. Will it be enough to push Microsoft’s hardware game into the extra innings they need?

Nokia’s flagship phones are doing well in the battle for mindshare against Samsung, Apple and the like. For the consumers that are seeking an alternative to the Sam-pple hegemony, Nokia is second only to the HTC One. Our analysis at Argus Insights has shown of the falling fortunes of RIM, LG, and dynamic fluctuations of HTC, have opened opportunities for Nokia. As you can see from the chart above, the low end handsets have similar consumer responses as the low end handsets of LG, Samsung and the rest, while the high end, even the much maligned 42 megapixel Lumia 1020, have solid footholds in the hearts and minds of consumers.

What does this mean for Microsoft? How can they capitalize on Nokia’s strengths? With Googl-Rola finally marching out the Moto X (and despite the gadget community being excited, early consumers, not so much) and Apple’s continued dominance, Microsoft has to deploy a competitive hardware play. While the Surface Pro continues to see uptake by consumers, it has consigned Microsoft hardware to “serious” enterprise users that are trying to get work done. The acquisition of Nokia’s consumer hardware business has the chance to soften Microsoft’s corporate edge for consumers. And Nokia knows hardware. Their supply chain is almost without parallel. Their challenge since the launch of the iPhone has been to understand how to blend software and hardware experiences into a seamless whole. This is the biggest opportunity for the new entity, and if executed correctly, could build out a bright future for both Microsoft and consumers.