Argus Insights CEO recently had a conversation with RCR Wireless’s Martha DeGrasse around the key findings in the latest weekly Smartphone Demand report. Top of mind was the comeback of the Galaxy S IV thanks to Verizon and the surprise that the Blackberry Z10 continues to demand attention. The report will be released later this week. Sign up for a subscription here.
While the Q10 is finally coming to America, it is unlikely to do as well as the Z10 has in the battle for hearts and minds. We’ve been tracking the Q10 in Canada and the UK since it was released weeks ago. The initial response has been poor, both in terms of buzz and delight, especially when compared to the triumphant release of the Z10.
Notice that the Z10 is slowing but still perceived by consumers as a better experience than even the iPhone 5. We’ll see if Monday’s Apple event shifts that perception. The Q10 is barely demanding commentary from the early markets, signally a slow start as it comes to the United States this week. Maybe the days of physical keyboards on phones have finally passed us by? We will have a surprise on Monday for Apple’s event so stay tuned!
When the iPad Mini was launched in late 2012 it was into an already confused consumer market of the Apple faithful. The iPhone 5 had been launched weeks earlier to a largely yawn response from the market (though it’s improving now). The iPad 4 launched with the Mini, and out of the normal cycle consumers had come to expect from Apple, largely delivered what consumers expected from the iPad 3 in March of 2012. Along with the release of the iPhone, Apple released new iPod Touch, known commonly the gateway drug to full iPhone ownership, but at a reasonably high price point. This put Apple in a pricing squeeze play for the Mini, pricing it twice as much as it’s comparable competitors. As a result we saw slow adoption for the iPad Mini and even the iPad 4 around the holiday season.
Cut to today and we see demand spiking in a way we have not seen for an Apple product since the iPhone became available on Verizon. In wallowing through the social media analysis, we found the culprit. Apple allowed retailers to drop the price by a significant percentage in April, ahead of Mother’s Day and after probably having a disappointing Valentine’s Day. This is typically unheard of for Apple to allow a price drop before launching another product. The punchline? Apple is losing its ability to demand a premium from the market. A smaller iPad is cool but not enough to compete against the much cheaper but almost equivalent experience of the Kindle Fire. Apple will have to pull more than one rabbit from their hat at the event on 10 June. Argus Insights is preparing a special surprise to assess the market impact of Apple’s announcements. More soon!
Contrary to popular belief, the iPhone’s aren’t the highest rated devices on the market. While the competitors have broad product portfolios that a mix of hit and miss, this allows them to tailor a handset to the diversity of consumers while the first thing iPhone customers do is buy a case to personalize it. I agree their focus on profitability is keeping the market share limited. The fact that Verizon sold as many iPhone 4S as iPhone 5 demonstrates that for iPhone fans, the only thing better than the iPhone 5 is a cheaper iPhone 4S. They have also been losing the experience innovation battle, focusing their launches on cool technical features such as camera components or silicon rather than moving the user experience forward. Even Henry Ford’s vaulted, “any color you want as long as it’s black” strategy had to give way to diverse offerings. You can see the narrowly defined handsets are delighting consumers more, in large part due to the strong point of view they take on the mobile experience.
Time and time again, as markets mature, the dominate experiences have to fragment to address the refined niche needs of the market. Galaxy Note does that very well while the Facebook phone didn’t. The Note phones added capabilities that integrated into the mobile experience. The Facebook phone took over the mobile experience, forcing consumers into an even more constrained experience. It’s time for Apple to find ways to fragment their walled garden or else iPhone users will continue to dig their way out.
We’ve checked our math over twenty times, gone back to the sources to verify what we’re seeing in the data from the market, but there’s no other conclusion we can draw, the Galaxy S4 is having what can only be termed a terrible launch. What? How can we say that? The S3 was the biggest threat to the iPhone 5 since the iPhone 4S! See it for yourself, the demand for S4 is much slower than the same time frame as its competitors.
Samsung has fallen into the same trap as Apple where the only thing consumers wanted more than a new iPhone 5 was a cheaper iPhone 4S. The same logic seems to playing itself out for the Galaxy S4, with a surge in response to both the S3 and iPhone 5.
We saw the market demand pause when the S4 was announced back in market (you can see the iPhone 5 bubble shrink a bit) but as soon as the S4 was available, iPhone 5 surged. Part of this is challenges in continuous innovating the user experience (eye tracking is like Siri, novel at first taste but annoying after), partly due to Apple getting aggressive with iPhone 5 promotions, rolling up their sleeves and wading into the brand wars everyone else is fighting. The smartphone market is insanely dynamic. Waiting for quarterly reports means you miss the chance to take advantage of these changes. That’s why Argus Insights tracks the market continuously. Look for our soon to be released weekly consumer demand report.